Claire de la Porte- May 19
- 3 min read
As Europe moves into the next phase of its post-crisis energy strategy, the European Commission’s newly unveiled REPowerEU Roadmap marks a definitive shift.
By 2027, the European Union plans to completely phase out imports of Russian gas, oil and nuclear materials. While this is a geopolitical and environmental milestone, it also represents a major inflection point for energy-intensive industries, including industrial baking.
This post explores what the Commission’s announcement means for Europe's baking sector and why bakery leaders must urgently prepare for the new energy reality.
A Geopolitical Imperative with Industrial Consequences
The Roadmap follows the REPowerEU Plan introduced in May 2022, which aimed to reduce the EU’s energy dependency on Russia following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made the intent unambiguous:
“It is now time for Europe to completely cut off its energy ties with an unreliable supplier. And energy that comes to our continent should not pay for a war of aggression against Ukraine.”¹
The implications for energy markets, and by extension for bakers, are substantial. According to the Commission, EU imports of Russian gas have already fallen from 150 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021 to 52 bcm in 2024, with full cessation targeted by the end of 2027.² Contracts for Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be phased out, and new contracts banned by the end of 2025.
Bakers, whose production processes require large volumes of gas for ovens and steam systems, are directly exposed. The cost and reliability of energy will become even more central to competitiveness in the coming years.
Rising Risk in the Short Term
While the long-term aim is to stabilize energy supply through diversification and renewables, the immediate outlook includes potential price volatility. The Commission acknowledges this challenge, stating that “more coordinated actions are needed” due to a 2024 rebound in Russian gas imports despite previous reductions.³
This volatility can affect industrial bakers in several ways:
Energy costs typically account for 5–15% of operating expenses in large-scale baking facilities.
Natural gas price swings—already exacerbated by global events in 2022 and 2023—could further strain margins.
Transitioning to electric or hydrogen-powered baking systems will involve upfront capital costs and retrofitting.
Planning Ahead: Strategic Adaptation
The Commission’s roadmap calls on Member States to prepare national plans by the end of 2025 to outline how each will contribute to phasing out Russian energy. This suggests a variable impact across the EU, depending on local energy infrastructure and market readiness.
Bakers operating across multiple EU countries will need to evaluate the differences in national energy transition strategies. They should also monitor initiatives such as the Affordable Energy Action Plan and the Clean Industrial Deal, which are designed to support industries through the transition.
Opportunities in Modernisation
While the disruption poses challenges, it also opens the door for long-term resilience and efficiency.
According to Teresa Ribera, Executive Vice-President for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition, the roadmap
“is crucial for our industrial competitiveness and for the well-being of our citizens.”⁴
Funds from EU decarbonisation efforts could support:
Upgrading to electric ovens and hybrid systems
Investing in onsite solar or biogas generation
Digitising operations to reduce energy waste
Such investments, though initially costly, may lead to better control over energy costs and improved sustainability credentials, a growing concern for both customers and regulators.
An Industry-Wide Call to Action
The phase-out of Russian energy is not a distant political objective; it is an active and accelerating policy shift with direct implications for the baking industry’s bottom line.
Industrial bakers must engage now: conduct energy risk audits, explore energy diversification strategies and stay informed about both national energy plans and EU funding instruments. Trade associations should advocate for sector-specific support, including transitional incentives and access to affordable alternative energy sources.
The energy transition is not optional. But with foresight and collaboration, it can be navigated in a way that sustains competitiveness and upholds the essential role of Europe’s baking industry.
References:
European Commission. “EU to fully end its dependency on Russian energy.” May 2025.
European Commission REPowerEU Plan – Progress and Updated Roadmap, 2025.
Ibid.
Teresa Ribera, quoted in European Commission press release, 2025.
