Industrial bakers across Europe are facing fresh challenges in 2025, driven by a new wave of tariffs imposed by the United States. These measures, announced in March, have sparked uncertainty in the global grain, dairy and equipment markets — with direct and indirect effects now rippling into European baking operations.

Understanding the Tariffs

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced tariffs on a range of European agricultural and industrial goods earlier this year, citing ongoing trade disputes over subsidies and regulatory standards. Although bakery-specific goods were not directly targeted, the collateral impact on key supply chain inputs, particularly wheat, dairy products and machinery, is undeniable.

According to the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Trade, the tariffs have led to a measurable decrease in transatlantic exports, particularly in high-value sectors like premium dairy and speciality grains.

Raw Material Pressures

Fluctuations in wheat and dairy prices are particularly concerning for industrial bakers, who depend on consistent quality and pricing. The International Grains Council notes that while global wheat stocks remain stable, regional price spikes are likely as European exporters seek new markets to offset losses in the US.

Similarly, the European Milk Board reports that European dairy producers are seeing rising costs, partly due to reduced market access and increased logistical complexities. For industrial bakeries, this could mean tighter margins or the need to reformulate recipes to accommodate more volatile ingredient costs.

Equipment and Innovation Slowdown

Beyond raw materials, tariffs on industrial machinery and components are also affecting bakery operations. The European Committee of Machinery Manufacturers for the Food Industry (EUROMAP) warns that import costs for specialised equipment parts sourced from the US have risen by an average of 15%. This creates barriers for bakeries planning to upgrade or expand facilities, particularly those investing in energy-efficient technologies.

Moreover, collaboration on technical standards and innovations between European and American firms has slowed, as trade tensions heighten regulatory divergence.

Strategic Responses for European Bakers

To weather these disruptions, many bakeries are reassessing their supply chains. The European Flour Millers Association recommends diversifying supplier bases, sourcing more raw materials locally within Europe and investing in alternative trade partnerships.

Furthermore, the Federation of European Manufacturers of Ingredients to the Bakery, Confectionery and Patisserie Industries (Fedima) advises industrial bakers to invest in digitalisation and automation technologies that can optimise production efficiency, helping to offset increased material costs.

Conclusion

The baking sector is no stranger to navigating global challenges. However, the latest wave of US tariffs demands a proactive and strategic response from Europe’s industrial bakers. By investing in local sourcing, automation and supply chain resilience, businesses can not only survive but thrive in an increasingly complex international market.

References

• Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), 2025. Trade Policy and Tariff Adjustments 2025. [Available at: https://ustr.gov/]

• European Commission, Directorate-General for Trade, 2025. EU External Trade: First Quarter 2025 Overview. [Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/trade/]

• International Grains Council, 2025. Grain Market Report, April 2025. [Available at: https://www.igc.int/]

• European Milk Board, 2025. Impact of US Tariffs on European Dairy Exporters. [Available at: https://www.europeanmilkboard.org/]

• EUROMAP, 2025. Machinery Trade Report 2025. [Available at: https://www.euromap.org/]

• European Flour Millers Association, 2025. Supply Chain Resilience Strategies for 2025. [Available at: https://www.europeanflourmillers.eu/]

• Fedima, 2025. Future-Proofing the Baking Industry: Recommendations for 2025 and Beyond. [Available at: https://www.fedima.org/]