- 5 hours ago
- 4 min read
A new report, from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), highlights the major risk posed by the rise of extreme heat events and their effects on agri-food systems worldwide — with significant implications for European industrial bakers and their supply chains.
According to the report, titled Extreme heat and agriculture, the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme heat events have risen sharply over the past half century.
These extreme heat events threaten the livelihood and health of over a billion people, causing half a trillion work hours to be lost annually – and the prospect of damage to livestock herds and crop yields is set to soar higher in future, the organisations emphasised. This translates directly into volatile input costs and increasing uncertainty around the availability and quality of core ingredients.
Extreme heat refers to situations where daytime and nighttime temperatures rise above their typical ranges for a protracted period. This leads to physiological stress and direct damage to food crops, livestock and human beings, with agricultural workers and systems absorbing the greatest impact.
FAO and WMO's report highlights how extreme heat ripples through these agricultural systems and how it can interact with other climatological variables – including rain, solar radiation, humidity, wind and drought – to trigger compound effects that 'wreak havoc' on individuals and entire ecosystems. For bakers reliant on stable supplies of wheat, dairy and eggs, these compound effects represent a growing procurement and cost risk.
It gives the example of a spring 2025 event in Kyrgyzstan's Fergana mountain range which saw temperatures stretch to 30.8°c, 10°c higher than usual. This caused a thermal shock to fruit and wheat crops, which contributed to a locust outbreak, heightened evaporation that reduced irrigation capacity, and eventually a 25% decline in cereal harvests — a stark illustration of how quickly heat events can disrupt the grain supply chains that underpin industrial bread production.
Rising average global temperatures and more frequent, intense extreme heat events narrow the 'thermal safety margin' that species rely on for biological processes that support photosynthesis, cellular regeneration and reproduction, the FAO and WMO said.
Extreme heat intensity roughly doubles at 2°c of global warming, and quadruples at 3°c, relative to 1.5°c increase in average global temperatures, according to the report.
Impact on ingredients critical to industrial baking
For the most common livestock species, stress begins at above 25°c, and begins lower for chickens and pigs who cannot cool themselves by sweating. Above that threshold, animals begin to suffer. Initially they seek shade, drinking more water and moving less, but persistent exposure leads to digestive tract breakdowns, organ failure and cardiovascular shock — disrupting the supply chains for eggs, lard and other animal-derived baking ingredients.
Additionally, the FAO noted that even when not lethal, extreme heat reduces dairy yields as well as fat and protein content. For industrial bakers using butter and milk solids, this means not only tighter supply but potential inconsistency in ingredient composition, affecting product quality and formulation reliability.
For most major agricultural crops, yield declines start at above 30°c, lower for some crops like potatoes and barley. This leads to weakened cell walls, sterile pollens and the production of toxic oxidative compounds. Wheat — the cornerstone ingredient for bakers — is directly exposed to these risks, with implications for both availability and flour quality.
Meanwhile, rates of tree photosynthesis and respiration diverge under extreme temperatures, creating an energy imbalance that causes reduced growth and less carbon removal from the atmosphere. Evidence indicates a strong correlation between heatwaves and wildfires, with longer and more intense fire seasons adding further pressure to agricultural land and logistics infrastructure.
Extreme heat as a supply chain risk multiplier
Aside from extreme heat's direct impacts, the report examines its multiplier effects. It exacerbates water stress, triggering flash droughts, and can also encourage the spread of pest and diseases — all of which compound pressure on the grain and dairy sectors that industrial bakers depend upon.
The report points to notable cases in the US in 2012 and 2017, the Russian Federation in 2010, Australia in 2018 and 2019, China in 2022, and Brazil in late 2023 and 2024, which saw soybean yields drop by 20% as temperatures averaged as much as 7°C higher for protracted periods. Soy-derived ingredients, including lecithin widely used as an emulsifier in industrial baking, are exposed to exactly these risks.
Data shows these events are beginning earlier, lasting longer and exposing more cropland to their impacts. Lasting effects include hardened soils with reduced water absorption ability and greater erosion vulnerability, pointing to structural, long-term pressure on ingredient supply rather than isolated seasonal shocks.
Recommendations for procurement and resilience planning
Several key recommendations are made in the report, including the implementation of adaptive measures like selective breeding and crop choices adjusted to the new climate reality, as well as adjusting planting windows and altering management practices.
For industrial bakers, this underlines the importance of working closely with suppliers to understand how their growing practices are evolving in response to climate pressures.
Early warning systems can also aid farmers critically in responding to such events, while access to financial services such as insurance schemes underpins all categories of adaptation options. Industrial bakers may wish to consider how such risks flow through their supplier relationships and whether existing contracts and hedging strategies offer sufficient protection against climate-driven supply shocks.
"Protecting the future of agriculture and ensuring global food security will require not only building on-farm resilience but also exercising international solidarity and collective political will for risk sharing, and a decisive transition away from a high-emissions future," the report concludes.
For European industrial bakers, engaging with this agenda, through sourcing policy, supplier partnerships and industry advocacy, is becoming less optional and more a matter of business continuity.
