The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has provisionally cleared the proposed merger between Associated British Foods’ (ABF) bakery business and Hovis across the whole of the UK, following additional analysis conducted as part of its Phase 2 investigation.

ABF, owner of the Kingsmill brand, supplies bread and other bakery products across the UK through its Allied Bakeries division, competing with companies including Hovis and Warburtons. Allied Bakeries and Hovis are also key suppliers of own-label bakery products to major supermarkets.

The proposed transaction was first announced in August 2025, when ABF agreed to acquire Hovis Group in a deal expected to reshape the UK bakery sector. In January 2026, the CMA fast-tracked its review of the merger into an in-depth Phase 2 investigation under new powers introduced by the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act 2024.

The regulator’s interim findings, published in March this year, provisionally cleared the merger in Great Britain while raising competition concerns in Northern Ireland.

At the time, the CMA’s independent inquiry group believed that, had the merger not proceeded, another buyer could have acquired Allied Bakeries’ Northern Ireland operations and continued competing with Hovis in the region.

However, following further evidence-gathering and analysis – including a review of Allied Bakeries’ financial performance in Northern Ireland and discussions with potential purchasers – the CMA has revised its provisional position.

The regulator now considers it more likely that Allied Bakeries’ Northern Ireland business would have closed if the merger had not gone ahead, as no alternative purchaser would have continued operating the business as a competitor to Hovis.

As a result, the inquiry group has provisionally concluded that the transaction would not substantially lessen competition in Northern Ireland, aligning its position with its earlier provisional clearance in Great Britain.

The CMA is now provisionally minded to approve the merger across the UK. Stakeholders have until 5pm on 28 May 2026 to submit comments on the supplementary interim report, with a final decision due by 24 June 2026.